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Chapter Page Name of the Chapter
xi Eight Interesting Facts about India
SECTION I: THE PERSPECTIVE
1 Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
6 Global Context
9 Review of Developments in 2016-17
13 Outlook for 2016-17
20 Outlook for 2017-18
22 Other Issues
22 Redistribution: Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a radical new vision
23 Exchange rate policy: Vigilance and new ways of monitoring
25 Trade Policy
26 Climate Change and India
27 Ensuring Women’s Privacy
30 India’s Soon-to-Recede Demographic Dividend
2 The Economic Vision for Precocious, Cleavaged India
42 The Road to be Traversed
46 Possible Explanations
SECTION II: THE PROXIMATE
3 Demonetization: To Deify or Demonize?
55 Background Facts
62 Early Evidence for Potential Long Term Benefits
66 Short Term Impact
69 Impact on GDP
76 Redistribution to the Government
76 Markers of Success
77 Maximizing Long Term Benefits, Minimizing Short-Term Costs
4 The Festering Twin Balance Sheet Problem
89 Is the Strategy Sustainable?
94 What Needs to be Done?
5 Fiscal Framework: The World is Changing, Should India Change Too?
106 India and the World: Flows
108 India and the World: Stocks
6 Fiscal Rules: Lessons from the States
115 Summary of the Fiscal Responsibility Legislation
115 Assessment Methodology
117 Impact on Deficits
119 Off-Budget Expenditure
120 Budget Process
122 Lessons for Future Fiscal Rules
7 Clothes and Shoes: Can India Reclaim Low Skill Manufacturing?
128 Why Clothes and Shoes?
136 Policy Response and Conclusions
8 Review of Economic Developments
142 Fiscal Developments
147 Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation
151 India’s Merchandise Trade
152 Balance of Payments
154 External Debt
155 Outlook for the Economy for the Year 2017-18
155 Agriculture and Food Management
158 Industrial, Corporate and Infrastructure Sectors
159 Services Sector
160 Social Infrastructure, Employment and Human Development
165 Climate Change
9 Universal Basic Income: A Conversation With and Within the Mahatma
173 The Conceptual/Philosophical Case for UBI
174 The Conceptual Case against UBI
175 Why Universalize?
182 How Can a UBI Overcome These Issues?
182 Insurance against Risk and Psychological Benefits
183 Improved Financial Inclusion
186 Temptation Goods: Would a UBI Promote Vice?
187 Moral Hazard: Would a UBI Reduce Labour Supply?
187 The Way Forward
SECTION III: THE PERSISTENT
10 Income, Health and Fertility: Convergence Puzzles
213 Introduction216 Finding 1: Income/Consumption Divergence Within India
220 Finding 2: Health Convergence within India with Room for Improvement against
223 Finding 3: Fertility: Exceptional Performance
11 One Economic India: For Goods and in the Eyes of the Constitution
233 Section 1: One India: Internal Trade in Goods
233 Does India Trade More Than Other Countries?
235 Relationship Between Interstate Trade and Manufacturing
235 Patterns of Interstate Trade: Arms-length Trade
237 Patterns of Interstate Trade: Intrafirm trade
239 Is Indian Interstate Trade Unusual? Formal Evidence from a Gravity Model
240 Explaining the puzzle: Why Does India Trade so Much?
243 Section 2: One India: Before the Law
243 India’s Constitutional Provisions and Jurisprudence
245 Provisions in Other Countries
246 Comparable WTO Law
12 India on the Move and Churning: New Evidence
264 Introduction and Main Findings
266 Baseline Census Data: Migration Levels and Growth
267 Re-estimating Migration: Two Time Periods, Two Data Sources, Two New Approaches
13 The ‘Other Indias’: Two Analytical Narratives (Redistributive and Natural
Resources) on States’ Development
286 Impact of Redistributive Resources
287 Redistributive Resource Transfers: Evidence from Indian States
292 Impact of Natural Resources
292 Natural Resources and Evidence from Indian States
14 From Competitive Federalism to Competitive Sub-Federalism: Cities as Dynamos
302 Key Challenges
306 Lessons from Across India
309 Mobilising Resources